Macro Trends & AI Reshaping Treasury Operations

Treasury teams are facing shifting interest rates, cracks in the labor market, and mounting pressure on the Fed—all while technology transforms how they work. In this month’s Inside Treasury4, Amol Dhargalkar, Managing Partner at Chatham Financial, sits down with our Chief Product Officer, Ed Barrie, to explore how treasurers can make sense of macro trends, sharpen cash forecasting, and apply AI to turn data into smarter decisions.

Plus — this month’s upcoming events (hint: AFP!), top treasury jobs, and more inside.

Macro Moves, AI, and Cash Forecasting: Lessons for Treasury Leaders

Macro forces are front and center for treasury teams today. As The Global Treasurer notes, “The era of cheap money is over. For treasurers, understanding how macroeconomic shifts directly impact financing costs is now a core responsibility for building financial resilience in a volatile world.”

To explore how treasury teams can navigate these shifts, we spoke with Amol Dhargalkar, Managing Partner at Chatham Financial, interviewed by Treasury4’s Chief Product Officer, Ed Barrie. In the interview, Amol emphasizes the importance of staying informed without overreacting:

“Understanding macro trends isn’t about reacting to every headline—it’s about using data to make confident, strategic decisions.”

Treasury teams today are navigating a complex environment: interest rates are shifting, investor sentiment is evolving, and technology is transforming the way treasury operates. At the center of these changes are three key priorities: cash forecasting, AI, and data fluency.

The Fed’s Impossible Balancing Act

Amol puts the current challenges in perspective: “I do not envy Chairman Powell and the job that the Fed has. It might be the toughest job that the Fed has had in not just recent history but in its real tenure.”

The challenge is multifaceted: inflation still runs above target while cracks appear in the labor market. Add unprecedented political pressure on Fed independence, and you have a recipe for continued market uncertainty.

For treasury teams, this creates a universal theme across industries: everyone wants rates to go lower, but they want them to go lower for the right reasons.

Industry-Specific Challenges, Common Themes

While the macro environment affects everyone, Amol’s work across corporate treasuries, commercial real estate, private equity, and financial institutions reveals distinct challenges:

Multinational Companies are wrestling with dollar weakness and trade policy uncertainty. With tariffs potentially shifting “on any given day,” these teams need robust scenario planning for currency and supply chain impacts.
Private equity faces unique treasury challenges as they manage efficient fund structures rather than traditional corporate cash flows, increasingly leveraging fund finance tools.
Real estate remains among the most leveraged asset classes, with teams desperately waiting for transaction velocity to return as interest rate policy clarifies.
Financial institutions are navigating an “oddly shaped yield curve” that breaks the traditional banking model of borrowing short and lending long.

AI: Solving Treasury’s Perennial Problem

When the conversation turned to AI, both Amol and Ed identified the same top priority: cash forecasting.

As Amol puts it: “Number one, two and three… one of the jobs of the treasurer and the treasury team is to have a handle on where the cash is and the liquidity of the firm. That has always been a challenge.”

“Cash forecasting remains the top challenge for treasury teams—but AI and better data are helping teams make it more precise and actionable.” — Amol Dhargalkar

What this means for your treasury team as you head into Q4 planning season

✔ Focus on the fundamentals – Cash forecasting remains the core challenge. Use AI to enhance, not replace, your existing processes. The most successful teams quickly answer: “What’s driving our cash flow variance, and what does that mean for next quarter?”

✔ Embrace scenario planning – With ongoing macro uncertainty, build flexibility into forecasting and liquidity management. Your systems should handle multiple scenarios simultaneously, not just single-point forecasts.

✔ Start experimenting – Begin testing AI on your most repetitive, high-volume processes. Transaction categorization and reconciliation are proven starting points that deliver immediate value. (We can help!)

✔ Plan for cross-border complexity – If you’re multinational, prepare for trade and currency volatility with better visibility into cash movements and their impact on your business.

Watch the full interview with Amol Dhargalkar below:

Get ready for AFP season with Treasury4!

⚡ Tuesday, October 21st Virtual Event – Treasurers in Conversation: Leading with Data, Automation, and Strategy featuring an expert client panel of treasurers from Snyk and Redis. Earn 1.2 CTP credits! Register here.

🎊 Monday, October 27th – Treasury4 & Convera AFP Afterparty: Join us for an exclusive networking event at Row 34 in Boston. No AFP badge required. RSVP.

📅 October 26-29th – Booth #631 at AFP: Our team will show you how Treasury4’s AI-engineered platform transforms liquidity management and forecasting. Book a meeting, wicked fast.

Click here to see the full list of upcoming events.

🚨 Hot jobs open in treasury

VP Treasury | Dataiku | Remote, USA | Apply Here
VP Treasurer | Zones, LLC | Auburn, WA | Apply Here
VP Treasury | Galaxy | NYC | Apply Here
Global Head of Treasury | State Street SPDR ETFs | Boston, MA | Apply Here
Director of Treasury | Granite Construction | CA or TX | Apply Here
Director of Treasury | DailyPay | NYC | Apply Here
Senior Manager, Treasury | Aristocrat | Las Vegas, NV/ Hybrid | Apply Here
Treasury Manager | Quorum Software | Houston, TX | Apply Here
Corporate Treasurer | Magnera Corporation | Evansville, IN | Apply Here

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From cash visibility to forecasting and compliance reporting, we make treasury data cleaner, more accessible, and built to scale. Turn your cash data into actionable insights—and make better, faster decisions. Let’s put your treasury data to work. Book a meeting with us